2024 Presidential Election Result Markets:
7
76
Ṁ220Ṁ410
Nov 10
1D
1W
1M
ALL
57%
No upsets
50%
Given ≥1 upset, Republicans win election
46%
Democrats win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)
44%
Given no upsets (Dem or Rep), Republicans win election
38%
Republicans win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)
24%
Democrats get upset (i.e. Reps win NE-2, MN, NH, ME, VA, or NM)
24%
Democrats sweep all 7 swing states
24%
Republicans sweep all 7 swing states
17%
Republicans get upset (i.e. Dems win FL, TX, ME-2, OH, IA, or AK)
11%
both Republicans and Democrats get upset
Definitions:
Upset = party that won that state/district lost by >3% in 2020 election
This includes 226 Democratic Electoral Votes (includes NE-2) and 219 Republican Electoral Votes (includes ME-2).
There are 7 swing states (within 3% in 2020) namely:
NC - 16
GA - 16
AZ - 11
WI - 10
PA - 19
NV - 6
MI - 15
In total, they account for 93 Electoral Votes
See
for relevant scenarios.
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This market has the same definition of tossup
https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/in-a-hypothetical-election-where-ev?r=Q2hpbm1heVRoZU1hdGhHdXk
Related questions
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A more detailed Who will win the 2024 presidential election?
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Which of the following will happen in the 2024 Presidential election? [ADD YOUR OWN ANSWERS (**see note**)]
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