2024 Presidential Election Result Markets:
14
410Ṁ2868
resolved Nov 11
Resolved
YES
No upsets
Resolved
YES
Given no upsets (Dem or Rep), Republicans win election
Resolved
YES
Republicans sweep all 7 swing states
Resolved
YES
Republicans win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)
Resolved
N/A
Given ≥1 upset, Republicans win election
Resolved
NO
Republicans get upset (i.e. Dems win FL, TX, ME-2, OH, IA, or AK)
Resolved
NO
Democrats get upset (i.e. Reps win NE-2, MN, NH, ME, VA, or NM)
Resolved
NO
both Republicans and Democrats get upset
Resolved
NO
Democrats sweep all 7 swing states
Resolved
NO
Democrats win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)

Definitions:

Upset = party that won that state/district lost by >3% in 2020 election

This includes 226 Democratic Electoral Votes (includes NE-2) and 219 Republican Electoral Votes (includes ME-2).

There are 7 swing states (within 3% in 2020) namely:

  • NC - 16

  • GA - 16

  • AZ - 11

  • WI - 10

  • PA - 19

  • NV - 6

  • MI - 15

In total, they account for 93 Electoral Votes

See

https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=22201111120122122221110122202211101221012222211102212212&year=2024

for relevant scenarios.

Politics
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
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OK I think

30% chance - Dems win with 300+ EVs

30% chance - Reps win with 300+ EVs

40% chance - both parties between 239 and 299 EVs

25% chance - Dems get upset (in MN, NH, NE-2, VA, NM, or ME)

25% chance - Reps get upset (in FL, ME-2, TX, IA, OH, or AK)

50% chance - no upsets

This market has the same definition of tossup

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/in-a-hypothetical-election-where-ev?r=Q2hpbm1heVRoZU1hdGhHdXk

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