
2024 Presidential Election Result Markets:
14
410Ṁ2868resolved Nov 11
Resolved
YESNo upsets
Resolved
YESGiven no upsets (Dem or Rep), Republicans win election
Resolved
YESRepublicans sweep all 7 swing states
Resolved
YESRepublicans win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)
Resolved
N/AGiven ≥1 upset, Republicans win election
Resolved
NORepublicans get upset (i.e. Dems win FL, TX, ME-2, OH, IA, or AK)
Resolved
NODemocrats get upset (i.e. Reps win NE-2, MN, NH, ME, VA, or NM)
Resolved
NOboth Republicans and Democrats get upset
Resolved
NODemocrats sweep all 7 swing states
Resolved
NODemocrats win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)
Definitions:
Upset = party that won that state/district lost by >3% in 2020 election
This includes 226 Democratic Electoral Votes (includes NE-2) and 219 Republican Electoral Votes (includes ME-2).
There are 7 swing states (within 3% in 2020) namely:
NC - 16
GA - 16
AZ - 11
WI - 10
PA - 19
NV - 6
MI - 15
In total, they account for 93 Electoral Votes
See
for relevant scenarios.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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