This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).

The official source of truth is the "Debt to the Penny" dataset published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Fiscal Data website: Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data .

• Metric: The specific data field to determine the resolution is Total Public Debt Outstanding.

• Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the exact date listed in the "Record Date" column of the first Treasury entry displaying a value of $50,000,000,000,000.00 or greater.

Background

The U.S. national debt officially crossed the $40 trillion threshold on August 18, 2026, several years ahead of initial Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections. This rapid escalation has been fueled by persistent budget deficits, high interest rates, and growing mandatory spending.

There are currently multiple differing predictions for when U.S. debt will cross this threshold. The Congressional Budget Office projects that this will happen from 2034 - 2036 however The Bank of America predicts says 2029. This market allows participants to predict the precise calendar date on which the U.S. government crosses this next major borrowing milestone.

Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

Total outstanding debt of the U.S. government reported daily. Includes a breakout of intragovernmental holdings (federal debt held by U.S. government) and debt held by the public (federal debt held by entities outside the U.S. government).