What will be the peak U.S. government debt to GDP ratio, 2020-2030? | Manifold

What will be the peak U.S. government debt to GDP ratio, 2020-2030?

Plus

8

Ṁ1117

2030

83%

> 140%

61%

> 160%

56%

> 180%

46%

> 200%

Resolved

YES

132% (2020 peak)

What will be the highest value of the United States debt to GDP ratio?

Q3 2020 was 132% (rounded down), and latest data of Q4 2023 is 121%

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S#0.

Will resolve to YES any number exceeded, and the rest to NO, when data is available for Q4 2029.

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1,000

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Q1 2024: 122.34%

bought Ṁ15 > 200% NO

This graph seems helpful

Resolving 132% to YES to avoid confusion

Would 132% not resolve YES now? Since it happened between 2020-2030? @0482

@Bayesian It will resolve in 2030 if it's the peak ratio until then. Editing the description to make it clear

bought Ṁ10 > 160% NO

@0482 wait, so it resolves to only one of these options?

you may want to make a new market that is dependent multiple choice in that case, to ensure that the probabilities add up to 100%

@Bayesian only the "132" option is mutually exclusive with the rest. The other options will resolve YES for every correct one.

Ohh okay that makes sense

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