Will Lula win the October 25, 2026 presidential runoff in Brazil?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ51in 9 hours
32%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The runoff is between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Resolves YES if Lula is declared the winner according to the official results of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Resolves NO if Flávio Bolsonaro is declared the winner. Resolves N/A if the runoff is postponed beyond November 15, 2026. Trading closes October 25, 2026 at 12:00 Paris time, before polls close. The creator will not bet on this market and will resolve it only after the official results.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
18% chance
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
19% chance
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the Brazilian presidential runoff on October 25, 2026?
29% chance
Will Lula win Brazil's October 25, 2026 runoff with at least 52% of the valid votes?
34% chance
Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?
1% chance
Will Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?
97% chance
Brazil 2026 Election: Will Lula get more votes than in 2022 (59,563,912) in any round?
18% chance