MANIFOLD

Who will be selected for the US Men’s National Team roster for the World Cup?

Ṁ2kṀ1.4k

resolved Nov 10

4%22%

Gio Reyna

4%13%

Sergiño Dest

4%10%

Walker Zimmerman

4%10%

Christian Pulisic

4%8%

Antonee Robinson

4%8%

Weston McKennie

4%7%

Yunus Musah

4%6%

Tyler Adams

4%4%

Brenden Aaronson

4%1.3%

Aaron Long

4%1.0%

Luca de la Torre

4%0.3%

Matt Turner

4%0.3%

Tim Weah

4%0.3%

Jesus Ferreira

4%0.2%

Ethan Horvath

4%0.1%

DeAndre Yedlin

4%0.0%

Kellyn Acosta

4%0.0%

Joe Scally

4%0.0%

Haji Wright

4%0.0%

Josh Sargent

Will resolve equally to all players selected for the USMNT World Cup roster. In the event of duplicates I’ll select the first answer.

It’s a 26 man roster, so each selected player will resolve to 3.846%.

So if a player is above that threshold, I believe you’ll LOSE mana betting on them even if selected. And GAIN money successfully betting on anyone below that threshold.

Close date updated to 2022-11-19 9:59 pm

Market context

Sports

US Soccer

2022 FIFA World Cup

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Accidental duplicate. Won’t choose this one.

It loos like the roster is large enough that when you resolve equally to all of them, the payoffs for each will be quite small, so it seems to me that there isn't much incentive to bet on this one.

@Forrest hmm. That’s too bad. Hoping betting on players who are on the bubble will subsidize those who get the roster perfectly correct. Guess I’ll see how it shakes out.