Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on which four teams reach the Semifinals and Final of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. The tournament takes place from June 11 to July 19, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA records and major sports news outlets (ESPN, BBC Sport, Sky Sports) confirming the semifinal matchups.

The four final teams will each resolve YES, the others NO.

Background

The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams split into twelve groups of four, with the top two teams in each group and the eight best third-placed teams progressing to a round of 32. FIFA established two separate pathways to the semifinals to ensure competitive balance—Spain and Argentina were drawn into opposite pathways, as were France and England, so these top four teams cannot meet until the semifinals if they win their groups.

Considerations

Teams reaching the final four will play eight matches total in the tournament, compared to seven in previous editions. The expanded format and new bracket structure mean that unlike traditional World Cups, the semifinal matchups are not predetermined by group placement alone—they depend on which teams win their respective groups and how the bracket unfolds through the Round of 32 and Quarterfinals.

If you want me to add other countries please @ me.

I will not trade in this market.