Will the Ukrainian-Russian war escalate by March 31st?
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100Ṁ1679resolved Feb 28
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This market asks if the current war will grow beyond its current participants Russia, Belarus, the separatist republics, CSTO members and Ukraine.
The market will resolve to YES if a party not currently a member to the war, for example Turkey or Poland, is widely recognized to have launched attacks in Ukraine or have been attacked by current participants. These attacks could be long range such as missile or drone strikes. Acts which might be unintentional or collateral, such as the destruction of MH17, would cause this market to resolve to YES if they occurred outside the territory of current participants.
A party simply providing material, intelligence, or weapons to participants still causes this question to resolve to NO.
Feb 26, 1:08am: I'm going to consider the territorial waters of Ukraine part of the territory of current participants. An attack on shipping would qualify if it occurred more than 12 miles off the coast.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I think this should resolve to Yes. Moldovan authorities claimed an oil tanker flying the Moldovan flag was hit by a missile while in international waters in the Black Sea.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news/card/moldova-says-missile-struck-oil-tanker-in-black-sea-Eqy1VU7ZCrQVtQh9em2J
A Japanese carrier was also struck by a missile 12+ miles from Odessa.
https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/37381/japanese-bulk-carrier-hit-missile-count-stricken-s/
https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/24/russia-ukraine-news-turkish-ship-hit-by-bomb-off-coast-of-ukraine-16168531/ early reports of collateral damage already. Probably more to come.