Will the question "Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023" on Metaculus resolve as positive?
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Will this question resolve positively?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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seems likely, but 98%? really. The question explicitly excludes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine
Arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/NiclasKupper/will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ
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