BET ON THIS MARKET AND GET Ṁ2!*
What is the probability of winning for each action (if played)?
(Tic tac toe against an opponent who chooses random squares)
Board state:
a | b | c
---|---|---
X | X | f
---|---|---
O | h | iChoosing an Action
When this market closes, one of the options will be chosen with the following distribution:
99% chance: Square with highest probability.**
1% chance: Choose a random square (uniformly at random out of the 6 options).
Then, an O will be placed at that square. Afterwards, an X will be placed at a square chosen uniformly at random.
Then, a new market will be created with the resulting board state and with the same rules for choosing actions. New markets will be created in this manner until the game is over.
Market Resolution
All options not chosen by the process above will immediately resolve N/A once this market closes.
Once the entire game has been decided, all markets will resolve in the following way:
The option chosen above will resolve to YES if Player 2 (O, played by Manifold users), wins the game.
The option chosen above will resolve to NO if Player 1 (X, played by randomly chosen moves), wins the game.
The option chosen above will resolve to PROB 50% if the game is a draw.
Previous market(s):
/CharlesLien/lets-play-tic-tac-toe
*To claim the Ṁ2, add a comment here:
/CharlesLien/free-m2-for-betting-on-any-of-my-ma
**Highest probability is determined by the displayed percentage in the UI. If there is more than one option with the same (highest) percentage, the tie is broken by whichever option shows up when sorted by "High %"
1,000
3.00@CharlesLien your random number is: 3
Salt: 32nfffnzcyc, round: 3808355 (signature aaace31cbd0b105e7a3d229c397b1b25240ab6641de0875eebb189ea1c08a06b65e616725bb817db87289029468b68e9014efed0470a5f8e811da55e38c6e06c00353430f248c3ac9795e5e75b4897f441888b9975b3c18c971e1448114ed473)
@CharlesLien you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 3808353 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3808355, salt: 32nfffnzcyc.
@CharlesLien your random number is: 23
Salt: 1mf2hzidp46, round: 3808351 (signature b042f9cb5cb4ed6c8d0385a4e26aff6b6f1e7581dfe309da2dae1e89f459c3fa336b193966568bf51f93c5d33955a12111e59543dc2c04d3618283f6e9f27387af3d6b098d7edf8d116ea0c00cc20fb841d46e1dec74376c0e84740d99b96c33)
@CharlesLien you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 3808349 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3808351, salt: 1mf2hzidp46.
@BoltonBailey I haven't done the math, just an observation:
You say this move was as bad as possible, but in the previous market, you seem to have bet up the corners to 86%, which is higher than 11/15. Wouldn't we expect the equity to increase if the opponent made a bad move?
I mean it's as bad as possible for O, sorry for the poor phrasing.