[Let's Play] Tic Tac Toe! (Player O Turn 2)
Mini
27
1.4k
resolved Mar 28
Resolved
N/A
a
Resolved
N/A
b
Resolved
N/A
c
Resolved
N/A
h
Resolved
N/A
i
Resolved
50%
f

BET ON THIS MARKET AND GET 2!*

What is the probability of winning for each action (if played)?

(Tic tac toe against an opponent who chooses random squares)

Board state:

 a | b | c
---|---|---
 X | X | f
---|---|---
 O | h | i

Choosing an Action

When this market closes, one of the options will be chosen with the following distribution:

  • 99% chance: Square with highest probability.**

  • 1% chance: Choose a random square (uniformly at random out of the 6 options).

Then, an O will be placed at that square. Afterwards, an X will be placed at a square chosen uniformly at random.

Then, a new market will be created with the resulting board state and with the same rules for choosing actions. New markets will be created in this manner until the game is over.

Market Resolution

All options not chosen by the process above will immediately resolve N/A once this market closes.

Once the entire game has been decided, all markets will resolve in the following way:

  • The option chosen above will resolve to YES if Player 2 (O, played by Manifold users), wins the game.

  • The option chosen above will resolve to NO if Player 1 (X, played by randomly chosen moves), wins the game.

  • The option chosen above will resolve to PROB 50% if the game is a draw.


Previous market(s):

/CharlesLien/lets-play-tic-tac-toe


*To claim the Ṁ2, add a comment here:

/CharlesLien/free-m2-for-betting-on-any-of-my-ma

**Highest probability is determined by the displayed percentage in the UI. If there is more than one option with the same (highest) percentage, the tie is broken by whichever option shows up when sorted by "High %"

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Market for turn 3 has been created:

🤖

@CharlesLien your random number is: 3

Salt: 32nfffnzcyc, round: 3808355 (signature aaace31cbd0b105e7a3d229c397b1b25240ab6641de0875eebb189ea1c08a06b65e616725bb817db87289029468b68e9014efed0470a5f8e811da55e38c6e06c00353430f248c3ac9795e5e75b4897f441888b9975b3c18c971e1448114ed473)

🤖

@CharlesLien you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3808353 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3808355, salt: 32nfffnzcyc.

Where to place X:

1: a

2: b

3: c

4: h

5: i

@FairlyRandom 5

🤖

@CharlesLien your random number is: 23

Salt: 1mf2hzidp46, round: 3808351 (signature b042f9cb5cb4ed6c8d0385a4e26aff6b6f1e7581dfe309da2dae1e89f459c3fa336b193966568bf51f93c5d33955a12111e59543dc2c04d3618283f6e9f27387af3d6b098d7edf8d116ea0c00cc20fb841d46e1dec74376c0e84740d99b96c33)

🤖

@CharlesLien you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3808349 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3808351, salt: 1mf2hzidp46.

1-99: Choose option f.

100: Choose random option.

@FairlyRandom 100

bought Ṁ10 h YES

I bet on this market

FYI, I am unranking this market, because as was pointed out on a similar market, it's technically whalebait. Still very cool though.

(Ahem. Well. I will note that when placing a bet on Manifold, it is clearly best practice to have had enough coffee beforehand that you can tell the difference between playing X and O.)

X's second move seems like it was about as bad as possible. By my calculations, equity now is about 11/15, disregarding the 1% chances for random moves by O.

@BoltonBailey I haven't done the math, just an observation:

You say this move was as bad as possible, but in the previous market, you seem to have bet up the corners to 86%, which is higher than 11/15. Wouldn't we expect the equity to increase if the opponent made a bad move?

I mean it's as bad as possible for O, sorry for the poor phrasing.

@BoltonBailey Ah ok, that makes sense.

Seems like only one viable move here