BET ON THIS MARKET AND GET Ṁ2!*
What is the probability of winning for each action (if played)?
(Tic tac toe against an opponent who chooses random squares)
Board state:
a | b | c
---|---|---
d | X | f
---|---|---
g | h | iChoosing an Action
When this market closes, one of the options will be chosen with the following distribution:
99% chance: Square with highest probability.**
1% chance: Choose a random square (uniformly at random out of the 8 options).
Then, an O will be placed at that square. Afterwards, an X will be placed at a square chosen uniformly at random.
Then, a new market will be created with the resulting board state and with the same rules for choosing actions. New markets will be created in this manner until the game is over.
Market Resolution
All options not chosen by the process above will immediately resolve N/A once this market closes.
Once the entire game has been decided, all markets will resolve in the following way:
The option chosen above will resolve to YES if Player 2 (O, played by Manifold users), wins the game.
The option chosen above will resolve to NO if Player 1 (X, played by randomly chosen moves), wins the game.
The option chosen above will resolve to PROB 50% if the game is a draw.
*To claim the Ṁ2, add a comment here:
/CharlesLien/free-m2-for-betting-on-any-of-my-ma
**Highest probability is determined by the displayed percentage in the UI. If there is more than one option with the same (highest) percentage, the tie is broken by whichever option shows up when sorted by "High %"
1,000
3.00@CharlesLien your random number is: 4
Salt: 5f2L07GtaclPIbUEkslj, round: 3723605 (signature a704b995392a5be5f70d1db2a8757ed5bcdf6ed68f190fbb036760b543e00c86c9695ce29a7e79937c90c85b9c150e5c006ac9528299fc3fd5f5ddc91598a12d4bbaa322fb3cf979716947c7590ee2258d7256211ae071e09037fcd018392f3f)
@CharlesLien you asked for a random integer between 1 and 7, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 3723603 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3723605, salt: 5f2L07GtaclPIbUEkslj.
@CharlesLien your random number is: 4
Salt: aTnj79sTk61qcI3F5zPg, round: 3723598 (signature a2b73b6a836435efec68c902f28f86d161492b201e29b37db98bc5e4468a4e09e8048bf63cfb30a3f3135d82d9cb7c7213ddc737784bc2947c5842087b628a3cdb6e23833cdfffcc0bdce02179b54b909ba823434f1be4a5a715fd451de91708)
@CharlesLien you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 3723596 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3723598, salt: aTnj79sTk61qcI3F5zPg.
@BoltonBailey there are even generators which place bombs in such a way it is impossible to 100% be sure.
This, for example, has a setting "ensure solubility". Sometimes when it's off it created such "1/3 chance" situations. Sometimes regions with uncertainty overlap, giving a difficult time calculating exact probabilities for the regions.
Finally, I think we have a market game structure that implements futarchy as originally formulated. I also like the random 1% chance - that's a nice touch.
@BoltonBailey Yeah, I added the 1% so that there would be a reason to have accurate percentages for actions that are obviously worse.