BET ON THIS MARKET AND GET Ṁ2!*
When this market closes, one of "continue playing" or "stop playing" will be chosen with probabilities proportional to the probabilities of the respective options.
NOTE: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACTION DOES NOT NECESSARILY GET TAKEN!
Market Rules
After this market closes, the appropriate action will be simulated, and if that action is "Continue Playing," a new market will be created with the same prompt.
At the end of the game:
If there are an even number of rounds, all markets will be resolved to "Lose"
If there are an odd number of rounds, all markets will be resolved to their respective played actions.
This is Round 1. If "Stop Playing" is selected, the market will resolve to "Lose"
I will not bet on this market.
Market Close Time
This market will close once there are 35 unique traders of this market. (Plus the time it takes me to realize that the threshold has been reached, plus approximately 24 hours for users to bet freely.)
Additionally, I will post a comment approximately 24 hours before close.
What are the best bets to take on this market?
This is an experiment to see if this type of thing will actually work. I have no idea what the correct actions are for this market. Bet whatever you want, and have fun!
*To claim the Ṁ2, add a comment here: https://manifold.markets/CharlesLien/free-m2-for-betting-on-any-of-my-ma
1,000@JamesBaker3 No. If we stop playing this round, then we have played 1 round. Therefore we did not play an even number of rounds, which is a losing game. In a losing game, all markets resolve to lose.
This holds for any odd rounds. The stop playing option will result in a loss, and should be priced at zero, if we look only at that round.
However, if everyone bet it down to zero on odd rounds, the odds of losing would also go to zero. This creates an incentive for someone to acquire cheap shares of "lose" and deliberately bet up stopping on an odd round.
(Pardon the comment necro.)