Will Anthropic be ordered to pay $1B+ in damages in Bartz v. Anthropic?
55
1kṀ28k
resolved Sep 26
Resolved
NO

Context:

https://www.obsolete.pub/p/anthropic-faces-potentially-business

This market resolves YES if:

  • Any court orders Anthropic to pay $1 billion or more in monetary damages in the case Bartz et al v. Anthropic PBC, Case No. 3:24-cv-05417-WHA (N.D. Cal.), even if later modified, reduced, or overturned

This market resolves NO if:

  • The case is resolved (including by settlement) and no court has ordered Anthropic to pay $1 billion or more in monetary damages as a result of this case

EDIT (07/25): I will not trade on this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ257
2Ṁ252
3Ṁ210
4Ṁ80
5Ṁ68
Sort by:

Looks like I need to keep this market open at least until the further hearing on September 25. https://apnews.com/article/anthropic-authors-book-settlement-ai-copyright-claude-b282fe615338bf1f98ad97cb82e978a1#

After spending nearly an hour mostly lambasting a settlement that he believes is full of pitfalls, U.S. District Judge William Alsup scheduled another hearing in San Francisco on September 25 to review whether his concerns had been addressed.

“We’ll see if I can hold my nose and approve it” then, Alsup said before adjourning Monday’s hearing.

Assuming the judge approves the proposed settlement, this market will resolve NO. That should happen at/after the hearing on September 8. https://www.axios.com/2025/09/05/anthropic-ai-copyright-settlement

Seems like there should have been a market that resolved yes on this news. Was there one?

Anthropic actually settled for 1.5 billion. This counts as No per discussion below. But the amount is more than I expected, I think.

https://x.com/RobertFreundLaw/status/1964040618549846071?t=007jxrkyYQC7McLTCToNtQ&s=19

Settlement of over $1B resolves No?

@JoshYou correct: if the case settles without a >= $1B court order, I will resolve NO.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy