Context:
https://www.obsolete.pub/p/anthropic-faces-potentially-business
This market resolves YES if:
Any court orders Anthropic to pay $1 billion or more in monetary damages in the case Bartz et al v. Anthropic PBC, Case No. 3:24-cv-05417-WHA (N.D. Cal.), even if later modified, reduced, or overturned
This market resolves NO if:
The case is resolved (including by settlement) and no court has ordered Anthropic to pay $1 billion or more in monetary damages as a result of this case
EDIT (07/25): I will not trade on this market.
1,000People are also trading
Assuming the judge approves the proposed settlement, this market will resolve NO. That should happen at/after the hearing on September 8. https://www.axios.com/2025/09/05/anthropic-ai-copyright-settlement
Anthropic actually settled for 1.5 billion. This counts as No per discussion below. But the amount is more than I expected, I think.
https://x.com/RobertFreundLaw/status/1964040618549846071?t=007jxrkyYQC7McLTCToNtQ&s=19
All the markets on this:
- https://manifold.markets/GauravYadav/will-anthropic-lose-the-authors-cop
- https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/the-potentially-businessending-anth
- https://manifold.markets/CharlesFoster/will-anthropic-be-ordered-to-pay-1b
- https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-anthropic-go-bankrupt-or-be-di