The "potentially business-ending" Anthropic copyright lawsuit
10
1kṀ2541
Sep 29
52%
Anthropic will go through a jury trial
40%
If Anthropic loses, total damages awarded >1.5B
13%
If Anthropic loses, total damages awarded >10B
4%
If Anthropic loses, total damages awarded >100B
4%
If Anthropic loses, total damages put it out of business by EOY 202

  • Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about how a settlement would be treated, the creator clarified that the intent is to mirror whatever Sentinel was predicting.

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@Bayesian which year?

bought Ṁ20 NO

How is a settlement treated?

@Mactuary The intent is to mirror whatever Sentinel was predicting, I don’t know what would seem most reasonable, hmmmmm

@Bayesian I feel like a settlement here is as likely as not, especially if there's the potential for a company ending award. I think using the value of the settlement is closest to "correct", though on a technicality you might call that not going through a jury trial.

As one piece of weak evidence, the tobacco case, referenced in a retweet, was settled.

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