If @IsaacKing loses the Whales v Minnows market, will he ragequit or threaten to?
Basic
31
Ṁ5302
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES

Resolves yes if any of the following happen:

  1. Ragequits

  2. Creates new acc

  3. Starts using alt acc instead of @IsaacKing as primary

  4. Stays away from manifold for >=3 days out of next 7 on primary account

  5. Threatens to rage quit (or non-rage normal quit)

Resolves NO otherwise.

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1y
  1. Ragequit: no (to the best of my knowledge)

  2. Isaac created a new account: check

  3. Started using alt as primary: check

  4. stays away from manifold (except to protect the streak) : check

  5. Threatens to ragequit: no (to the best of my knowledge)

Thanks to @Mira for pointing these out, thanks to @firstuserhere for the reminder to resolve.

Since it would resolve YES if any of the criteria matched, and we've got multiple of the criteria matched, I'm resolving it as YES.

predictedNO 1y

@Char #2 and #3 did not occur. That alt account has existed for months, and I'm not using it as my primary account; it explicitly says in its profile what situations it's for.

And you already said below that #4 isn't sufficient to resolve this to YES.

1y

@Char resolves YES according to criteria in the description

1y

Hasn't he already been inactive for the past few days?

1y

@BenjaminIkuta Inactive on main. And he transferred money to @IsaacKing2 , which is an alt account for trading and creating markets i.e. a new primary account. And that one's inactive too. And there was a market that I can't find(probably unlisted since) about "Will I prefer spending time in the MtG community over manifold?", which is a threat to non-rage normal quit.

So we have like 4/5 of the criteria being met.

1y

Now that this market is at 4%, there is incentive for a person or account to ask Isaac to stay away for 3+ days from manifold and make a ton of money

predictedYES 1y

@Char (obv not rn but as more mana is injected)

1y

@Char Would cost a lot to make me give up my streak.

predictedYES 1y

@IsaacKing how much is that streak? And yes that's the point. It would cost a lot, like all the investment in Whales v minnows market (not just mana, but time + energy + stress etc combined)

predictedNO 1y
predictedYES 1y

@IsaacKing wow, nice!

1y

He may use any of my accounts, I have hundreds.

1y

@EiWjwjwi we all love you, Mark

1y
1y

#4 seems likely to happen just based on my normal usage patterns...

1y

@IsaacKing I agree but you may use some other acc to still do manifolding but just less controversially

1y

@Char My point is that this market is likely to resolve YES without any change in behavior from me, so it's not actually asking what the title claims it's asking.

1y

(Unless you count placing one bet a day to maintain my streak as "activity".)

1y

@IsaacKing I would count that as activity, because why not.

1y

@Char reduced activity is understandable after so much intense back to back weeks of The market and now this

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