Resolves as YES as soon as it is widely reported that Russia has lost control of Tartus, its strategic overseas base in Syria. Resolve as NO if Russia maintains control over Tartus until the end of the year, or if it remains unclear whether Russia has lost control by January 4, 2025.
Due to the collapse of the defense line, the insurgent army has quickly advanced 150 km from Aleppo to Hama and is now likely less than 100 km away from the Russian base in Tartus. As a result, Putin appears to be withdrawing his ships, which may indicate that he has given up on trying to defend it.
Source: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/12/first-sign-russian-navy-evacuating-naval-vessels-from-tartus-syria/
I will not bet in this market.
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Here's a comment by Peter Zeihan:
The Russian Navy Leaves Syria for Benghazi... || Peter Zeihan - YouTube
This is the YouTube transcript:
I just found out that the the Scuttle butt in the Middle East is that the Russians are going to relocate their Fleet to Benghazi Libya - quick background the Russians have been operating out of the port of Bonas and tartis in uh Syria for about a decade and they've been using those as their primary Supply points to participate in the Syrian Civil War where they are responsible for among other things carpet bombing civilians and probably killing uh somewhere around 100,000 people in AO specifically - anyway the the new government that is taking form is a group of militant groups that are opposed by the Russians uh so the Russians are getting the hell out of Dodge because they're not completely stupid
The market will resolve as NO, unless something very dramatic happens in the next hours.
There seems to be a lot of love in the air. I don't really think the Russians are going to talk their way out of this, but it might take some time until they have to abandon Tartus.
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3ldqc2xn67c2k
also video of syrians giving russians the finger as they drive off https://x.com/pepel_klaasa/status/1869330657757089834
This also doesn't sound like the negotiations were successful.
Oliver Alexander is normally a reliable source, but I’m not as 100% convinced as he is that the Russians are really leaving.
https://bsky.app/profile/oalexanderdk.bsky.social/post/3ld6vz7pfv22t
https://bsky.app/profile/michaelkofman.bsky.social/post/3ld4hrnycpk2e
Looks like Russia is slowly withdrawing from Syria.
It appears that Israel is upgrading the Syrian navy to submarines in Latakia, while some Russians are still there and definitely not enjoying it.
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3lcvh76gq7c2u
Edit: Although some sources such as https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lcvgjh62722h claim the strike was on Tartus as originally claimed in this comment, it looks like it was Latakia.
The insurgents have apparently entered Tartus. There are rumors that Russia is trying to negotiate a deal to retain their base, but I highly doubt an agreement will be reached. Putin has bombed their civilians, hospitals, and schools for many years.
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1865771628707160282
Not sufficient for a resolution, but it does seem like Russians are abandoning Tartus.
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcqagzyjl22h
