Will there be a big earthquake in 2023 in California ?
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Jan 1
10%
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Jul 18, 7:18am: Will there be a big earthquake (8+ on Richter scale) in 2023 in California ?

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bought Ṁ25 of NO
“There has never been a 8.0 earthquake in California; the strongest on record is a 7.9 near Fort Tejon in 1857, according to the state's Department of Conservation.”
predicts NO
~1% or lower base rate https://www.conservation.ca.gov/index/Pages/CA-big-quakes.aspx
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Thank you both, edited question
You should define big.
@Duncan ^^ seconded