Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point during the calendar year 2026, the German federal government officially legislates or enacts a regulatory change that entirely eliminates the Einspeisevergütung (feed-in tariff) for new, small-scale photovoltaic installations.

"Small-scale" is defined according to the thresholds established in the Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) at the time of the potential policy change. If the tariff is modified, reduced, or restructured but not fully repealed for all new small-scale systems, the market will resolve to NO.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) or the publication of amended EEG legislation in the Bundesgesetzblatt (Federal Law Gazette).

Background

The Einspeisevergütung is a core component of the German Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG), designed to incentivize the expansion of renewable energy by guaranteeing grid operators pay fixed rates for electricity fed into the grid. As solar technology costs have declined and market integration has progressed, there has been ongoing political debate in Germany regarding the future necessity and structure of these subsidies.

Traders should monitor official legislative updates from the German government regarding EEG reforms throughout 2026. As of early 2026, the tariff remains a legal entitlement for operators of qualified photovoltaic systems.

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Additional German news article: https://www.t-online.de/heim-garten/aktuelles/id_101207374/reiche-schafft-einspeiseverguetung-ab-diesen-projekten-droht-das-aus.html