Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Restore Britain party candidate is declared the winner of the Makerfield by-election, and "No" otherwise. The result will be determined by the official declaration of the result by the returning officer for the Makerfield constituency. Official results are typically published on the UK Parliament website (https://www.parliament.uk) and reported by major news outlets such as the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/politics).

If the by-election is cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or does not take place, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

The Makerfield by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons on 14 May 2026, with the aim of allowing Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand for the seat. The election is widely expected to be held on 18 June 2026.

Restore Britain is a political party founded by Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, and officially registered as a party in March 2026. The party has announced Rebecca Shepherd as its candidate for the Makerfield by-election. This contest is taking place against a backdrop of significant national political instability, with the seat traditionally held by Labour but currently considered highly competitive following strong recent performances by Reform UK in the area.

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