Background

On February 19, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled Commencing the Reduction of Federal Bureaucracy, which aims to eliminate the Presidio Trust, the agency responsible for managing San Francisco’s Presidio national park. The order deems the Trust “unnecessary” and calls for ceasing all non-legally required federal funding.

The Presidio Trust, established by Congress in 1996, oversees the financial and operational management of the 1,500-acre park. Unlike other national parks, it operates under a unique public-private model designed to make it financially self-sustaining. The executive order has sparked significant opposition from local and state officials, preservation groups, and members of Congress, and legal challenges are expected.

Congressional action, judicial rulings, and potential changes in presidential administration (including the 2028 election) could all impact the fate of the Presidio Trust.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the Presidio Trust is officially dissolved as a legal entity on or before December 31, 2026. This includes:

• An act of Congress formally disbanding the Presidio Trust.

• A legal or administrative ruling affirming the executive order’s effectiveness in dissolving the Trust.

• The transfer of all Trust responsibilities and assets to another entity (e.g., the National Park Service), accompanied by an official government statement declaring the dissolution of the Presidio Trust.

This market will resolve NO if, by December 31, 2026:

• The Presidio Trust still exists as a legal entity, even if it operates with reduced funding or authority.

• There are ongoing legal battles preventing the Trust's dissolution.

• A future administration reverses or overrides the executive order before dissolution occurs.

If the status of the Presidio Trust remains unclear by the resolution date, resolution may be delayed until there is definitive confirmation of its legal standing.

Considerations

• Legal Challenges: The Presidio Trust was established by Congress, meaning a unilateral executive order may not be sufficient to dissolve it without legislative action or judicial validation.

• Political Shifts: The 2026 midterm elections or a potential change in presidential administration in 2029 could alter the Trust’s fate.

• Alternative Outcomes: Even if the Trust loses federal funding, it may continue to exist in a modified form, possibly with state or private financial support.