@Tripping My bad, I searched for a potential duplicate market before making this one but couldn't find one....

I think this market is probably more or less right but most of this is just correlation - if either campaign decided to go all-in on PA this would become less true.

Saw this post and wanted to sense-check via Manifold.

@CarsonGaleWhat model is that from, Silver? It's wild how 1 voter from Pennsylvania (the median voter) has all the power in deciding the entire election.

The only power the other 200 million Americans have is sitting out/voting 3rd party which only hurts their preferred candidate (i.e. Their vote has no power or impact on the result of the election, it's just a chore)

Compare that to the median voter in PA who has a 85% say in who wins the election.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Saying a median voter decides the outcome of the election is like saying that all the mass of an object is located in whatever particle happens to be at the center of mass. A median is a property of a collection, not an individual. If you have the numbers 1, 4, 15, 38, and 82, then the median is 15. 15 can stay exactly the same, but if the other numbers change to 37, 44, 87, and 98, then the median changes from 15 to 44. It takes the whole collection to define the median.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Not quite that bad: https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/where-is-your-vote-worth-the-most