Part 1: In 2023, will former users return to Twitter?
23
104
450
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

“Following Twitter acquisition chaos—multiple centralized and decentralized sites including Mastodon have popped up as Twitter replacements with multiple brands and advertisers cutting ties with the platform at the end of 2022. However, it is my prediction that by the end of 2023, users will return to Twitter—but how much Twitter will change in a year will be a surprise to us all.” —Michael Jones, CEO and managing director, Science Inc.

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

  • [TBU]

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Resolving NO given all sources I'm seeing online are suggesting that usage hasn't rebounded. But traders please LMK if you have seen anything different and I can consider modifying the resolution.

predicted NO

@CarsonGale Could you please resolve? Thanks 🙏

bought Ṁ300 of NO

Seems like this market should be relatively synced up with: /SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active

Advertisers are clearly still leaving.

bought Ṁ75 of YES

half of the users I was following who left twitter to mastodon/bluesky have since come back

How many users should return for a yes resolution?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Buying Yes in prediction of an exodus from Reddit following its API changes.