On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Fraud farms or fraud rings are the future of organized fraud. They are semi-automated operations that leverage human labor in combination with mobile technology to scale core fraud activities, including social engineering to steal identities and take over accounts. While content moderation has been the main focus of gig economy companies in 2022, next year, I predict that we will see a shift toward policy creation and automated abuse detection to prevent fraud before it happens and ensure repeat offenders are flagged and blocked.” —André Ferraz, CEO and founder, Incognia
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
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I happen to work in exactly this industry. I don't get this prediction. The industry is growing pretty quickly, but that's been the case for the last 10 years, and the general macro environment has slowed growth down this year. Nothing out of the ordinary happened in 2023. Just a continuation of past trends. Of course there's various LLM fraud but in the sceme of things that's still a small percent of all fraud.
Candidly, seems like traders will have a stronger POV than I will on this market. I'm inclined to either resolve NO given there was no noticeable 'shift' or to resovle "N/A" since it was a poorly formed and somewhat unverifiable prediction in the first place. Welcome market feeback between those two options.