Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity resulting in US casualties before September 11, 2025
15
1kṀ4357Sep 10
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This aims to predict whether activities by Iranian-backed sleeper cells will result in casualties on US soil before September 11, 2025. Sleeper cell activity refers to covert operations by operatives who remain dormant until activated to carry out attacks. Confirmation must come from US law enforcement agencies or reputable news organizations.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025
16% chance
Will there be American soldiers in Iran before 2026?
13% chance
Large-scale cyber attack on Iran or Israel before Aug 2025?
56% chance
Given who wins the US election, will there be American soldiers in Iran before 2026?
Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?
37% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2025?
10% chance
The US and/or Israel will strike Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in 2025
99% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than 9/11 before 2035
34% chance