Optimally, the numbers will be taken from official reports that the spokespersons will releases.
If there will be reason to believe that the numbers are not accurate, I will follow the English Wikipedia estimation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict_(2023%E2%80%93present)
I know that currently this article does not separate combatants to non combatants , but I will take the sources that agreed upon in in this article.
Alternativly, if the numbers will be too vague, I will judge by mainstream media reports.
I will not bet in this market.
The ratio will be calculated, and the closest option will win.
(If it is necessary to add more option, ask me and I'll add.)
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Early Resolution: If the war ends before the market close date, the market will be resolved at the time of the war's end.
Exclusion of Post-War Deaths: Deaths occurring after the war's end will not be included in the death ratio.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน480 | |
| 2 | แน172 | |
| 3 | แน168 | |
| 4 | แน135 | |
| 5 | แน108 |
@traders
does anyone have an objection for resolving this?
I didn't mention that if the war ends the market can be resolved, but I don't see a reason why not.
its not that the resolution will change (IDF deaths will remain the same, if more will die that wont be part of this war)
@CarmelHadar current estimates (from Wikipedia) are over 3000 for Hezbollah vs 75 for the IDF, for a ratio of over 40 to 1. I'm not sure that includes the losses of the last few days, but even if it doesn't that's a healthy safety margin.
@ShakedKoplewitz
so it seems.
but we shall wait until the war will end (or 2026).
i would also bet that now, but I already said I wont bet in this market
@ShakedKoplewitz current assessments are about 400 Hezbollah deaths to ~10 Israelis. I'm assuming these are on the optimistic side but so far Hezbollah's showing itself to be a paper tiger
I wouldn't say paper tiger, I would say decapitated. Lack of command and intelligence makes it extremely hard to fight against experienced army, that collected Intel on your position for many years.
@ShakedKoplewitz Are IDF numbers reliable during operations? If you listen to Hezbollah the ratio is surely very different.
@zsig IDF numbers are definitely reliable for their own casualties (since they have to inform families in a country with free press), although they can potentially delay publication by a few days (normal is a day or two to notify the family first, I can imagine that number being higher for infosec cases but not significantly so). Hezbollah numbers are completely implausible on this basis - they're claiming dozens or hundreds of (unreported) casualties inflicted, which isn't plausible to keep hidden.
IDF counts of Hezbollah losses are probably less reliable (it's quite hard to count enemy losses and Hezbollah stopped publishing their casualties once they started getting bad). But they're probably in the right ballpark, at least.