What will be the death ratio between Hezbollah and the IDF (combatants only)
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Plus
14
แน€964
2026
55%
10:1 to 20:1 (more Hezbollah deaths)
18%
More then 20:1
7%
6:1 to 10:1 (more Hezbollah deaths)
4%
5:1 (more Hezbollah deaths)
3%
Other
2%
2:1 (more Hezbollah deaths)
2%
3:1 (more Hezbollah deaths)
2%
4:1 (more Hezbollah deaths)
2%
1:3 (more IDF deaths)
2%
1:2 (more IDF deaths)
2%
1:1

Optimally, the numbers will be taken from official reports that the spokespersons will releases.

If there will be reason to believe that the numbers are not accurate, I will follow the English Wikipedia estimation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict_(2023%E2%80%93present)

I know that currently this article does not separate combatants to non combatants , but I will take the sources that agreed upon in in this article.

Alternativly, if the numbers will be too vague, I will judge by mainstream media reports.

I will not bet in this market.

The ratio will be calculated, and the closest option will win.

(If it is necessary to add more option, ask me and I'll add.)

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currently reported ratios are about 11 to 1 in the fighting (~100 Hezbollah people for 9 Israeli soldiers). If you include airstrikes (and pagers) that's much higher losses to Hezbollah (and about 20 more IDF losses from rockets), but I doubt we'll ever get accurate numbers on those.

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@ShakedKoplewitz current assessments are about 400 Hezbollah deaths to ~10 Israelis. I'm assuming these are on the optimistic side but so far Hezbollah's showing itself to be a paper tiger

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-assesses-over-400-hezbollah-operatives-killed-in-lebanon-ground-op-so-far/

@ShakedKoplewitz

I wouldn't say paper tiger, I would say decapitated. Lack of command and intelligence makes it extremely hard to fight against experienced army, that collected Intel on your position for many years.

@ShakedKoplewitz Are IDF numbers reliable during operations? If you listen to Hezbollah the ratio is surely very different.

@zsig IDF numbers are definitely reliable for their own casualties (since they have to inform families in a country with free press), although they can potentially delay publication by a few days (normal is a day or two to notify the family first, I can imagine that number being higher for infosec cases but not significantly so). Hezbollah numbers are completely implausible on this basis - they're claiming dozens or hundreds of (unreported) casualties inflicted, which isn't plausible to keep hidden.

IDF counts of Hezbollah losses are probably less reliable (it's quite hard to count enemy losses and Hezbollah stopped publishing their casualties once they started getting bad). But they're probably in the right ballpark, at least.

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