[France] Provided reforms inspired by the new Front Populaire, will unemployment reach 1981's level?
4
100Ṁ104
2027
52%
chance

The legislative elections seem to give more power to the French left through the Front Populaire party. The economic program of the party, however, has been heavily criticized in the media for being bad. One comment in particular predicted "unemployment to the degree seen in 1981" if measures such as reevaluating the minimal wage are applied.

For this market to resolve:

1-At least one law related to SMIC (french minimal wage) that is proposed by several FP candidates in the parliament has to be adopted (with or without modifications). Resolves ambiguously otherwise.

2-The unemployment level has to be equal or superior to 8,1% of active workers between 2 months after the law is adopted and 2 months after the next legislative elections (2027).

No causal relationship need to be demonstrated, this is obviously a tong-in-cheek to politicians and columnists, and I don't have enough background to establish any real causality.

Note: this is not my field of specialty. Please feel free to suggest more refined criteria for resolution.

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Apparently the SMIC thing is doable by executive decree, no assembly vote required in itself. I think it would make sense for such a mean of SMIC raise to also count for this market, do you agree?

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