Definitions
a big plane means a powered fixed-wing aircraft with wingspan greater or equals to 20m (around 65.6ft) that has been airborne within 365 days prior to the collision. Things that are included under the physical requirements: Bombardier Global 5000, any Boeing 737. Things that are not included under the physical requirements: a glider, a helicopter, Cessna Citation V, Cessna 172 Skyhawk. A part of the plane that is detached at the time to collision does not count. (e.g. a wheel that detaches from a plane and collide with another plane does not count)
two [objects] collide means physical contact between multiple objects.
will means happening after 2024-01-03T03:00:00Z
in 2024 means when the collision takes place, the local time is in the year 2024.
another is to exclude events in 2024 before this question's creation.
1,000
3.00This question will likely resolving yes, because two planes collide while one is standing, and the other one is taxing to or from takeoff.
The AI illustration, and the headline gives another far more dramatic effect. Mid air collision is unlikely.
I think 60% is fair price at this time.
I really appreciate the clear writing of the resolution criteria. Ground collisions between large aircraft are sufficient to resolve this YES and are fairly common. This would have resolved yes in every one of the last ten years:
2023: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20230413-0
2022: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20220617-1
2021: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20211001-1
2020: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20200614-1
2019: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20190209-0
2018: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20180105-0
2017: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20170630-0
2016: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20160217-0
2015: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20150401-0
2014: https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20140414-1
Here's a fresh market (copying your criteria @Calvin6b82 thanks!) which will resolve yes iff all your conditions are met and one of the aircraft are airborn.
https://manifold.markets/AxelJacobsen/will-two-big-planes-collide-while-a
There have been between 4 and 6 big planes collisions in the past 24 years, according to Wikipedia[1] (depending on whether we count a near-collision as having happened etc). The number of crashes should follow Poisson distribution, MLE is given by the mean, between 1/4 and 1/6. This translates into 14-23% of at least 1 collision happening in a year.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft
@Quin yes that's before I created the question. See the definitions:
will means happening after 2024-01-03T03:00:00Z