Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ63
Aug 31
70%
chance

On May 1, 2026, the United States announced it will withdraw approximately 5,000 troops from Germany amid clashes between Trump and the German leader over the US-Iran war. The announcement stated intent but did not specify a completion date. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, the US Department of Defense or US Army Europe-Africa publicly confirms that at least 5,000 troops have been withdrawn from Germany since the May 1 announcement. Confirmation must include the cumulative count. RESOLVES NO if (a) fewer than 5,000 troops have been confirmed withdrawn by the deadline, (b) the withdrawal order is rescinded, or (c) the troops are reassigned within Europe rather than withdrawn from the continent.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!