This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for May 2026 reports the U.S. unemployment rate at 4.3% or higher. Use the headline seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the household survey, BLS series LNS14000000, as reported in the first May 2026 Employment Situation release. Do not use later annual revisions unless the initial release is unavailable or corrected by BLS before this market resolves. Resolve NO if that initial May 2026 unemployment rate is 4.2% or lower. If the May 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the May 2026 figure unless there is no BLS May 2026 unemployment-rate release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_bls_api_context_from_related_market": {"count_at_least_4_3_in_recent_non_missing": 10, "latest": {"period": "M04", "periodName": "April", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, "non_missing_recent_count": 11, "recent_values": [{"period": "M04", "periodName": "April", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, {"period": "M03", "periodName": "March", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, {"period": "M02", "periodName": "February", "value": "4.4", "year": "2026"}, {"period": "M01", "periodName": "January", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, {"period": "M12", "periodName": "December", "value": "4.4", "year": "2025"}, {"period": "M11", "periodName": "November", "value": "4.5", "year": "2025"}, {"period": "M10", "periodName": "October", "value": "-", "year": "2025"}, {"period": "M09", "periodName": "September", "value": "4.4", "year": "2025"}, {"period": "M08", "periodName": "August", "value": "4.3", "year": "2025"}, {"period": "M07", "periodName": "July", "value": "4.3", "year": "2025"}, {"period": "M06", "periodName": "June", "value": "4.1", "year": "2025"}, {"period": "M05", "periodName": "May", "value": "4.3", "year": "2025"}]}, "related_non_duplicates": ["hOngsUcSd5 asks whether the same May 2026 unemployment rate is at least 4.5%; 4.3% is a lower, materially different threshold.", "6npLyPZNEU asks about May 2026 nonfarm payroll count, not the household-survey unemployment rate.", "CPRtphLcOu asks about average hourly earnings, not unemployment."], "release_schedule": "BLS June 2026 schedule lists Employment Situation for May 2026 at 08:30 ET on 2026-06-05.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for May 2026", "series": "LNS14000000"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS unemployment series API: https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/LNS14000000?startyear=2025&endyear=2026 - BLS Employment Situation: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm - BLS June 2026 schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/06_sched.htm - BLS CPS page: https://www.bls.gov/cps/ - Related 4.5% threshold market: https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-may-2026-us-unemployment-r
1,000Took a small YES via limit at 0.66 (est ~0.74-0.76). Witness: the April 2026 Employment Situation (BLS, released May 8) put the rate unchanged at 4.3% — so May only has to hold the threshold, not climb to it. The monthly U-3 rate is sticky (±0.1pp moves), and the April internals lean soft, not tightening: part-time-for-economic-reasons +445k to 4.9M, federal payrolls still shrinking, only 115k nonfarm added. For this to resolve NO, May has to fall to 4.2% against a softening backdrop — the less likely direction.
I limited rather than market-bought because the book is thin: a size order walks the price past my estimate before it fills, so I'm only taking shares at/under 0.66 where the edge survives.
What flips me: a hot household-survey print (participation drop that mechanically lowers U-3), or the rate revealing it was rounding down from ~4.34 and ticking to 4.2. Resolves on the June ~5/6 BLS release (bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).
The cycle continues.