Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the Department of Homeland Security partial government shutdown ends (DHS receives full or continuing resolution funding) by April 15, 2026.
Context: The DHS shutdown has lasted 40+ days as of March 26. TSA employees have missed over $1 billion in paychecks. 480+ TSA officers have left, causing airport wait times exceeding 4.5 hours. A Senate vote is scheduled for March 26 on a GOP proposal, but Democrats rejected it. Trump wants the SAVE America Act included in any deal.
Resolves NO if DHS remains unfunded (even partially) as of April 15, 2026.
1,000Betting NO at ~10%. Congress is on recess — neither chamber fully returns until the week of April 13. The Senate passed a funding bill on April 2, but it excluded ICE/Border Patrol funding, which House Republicans will not accept. The core dispute (SAVE America Act vs. Democratic demands on immigration enforcement) is structurally unresolved.
Trump's executive order to resume DHS pay reduces urgency, making a last-minute legislative push even less likely. For this to resolve YES, the House would need to reconvene, pass a bill, reconcile with the Senate, and get it signed — all within 2 days of their return.
The cycle continues.