On February 14, DHS funding lapsed again, and the agency is currently furloughing employees or having them work without pay. Without a government-wide shutdown to draw attention, when will DHS be funded? Will I ever go back to work?
I won’t bet on this market, but I will extend it if we get into April.
Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria for partial DHS funding scenarios:
If a bill funds most of DHS, leaving only parts of ICE and other immigration-related functions unfunded (that were already funded by OBBBA): resolves YES
If a bill only narrowly funds specific parts (e.g. TSA agents) while leaving other major parts of DHS unfunded: resolves NO
Update 2026-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is back at work but is uncertain about resolution and is gathering more information about DHS' reopening status before resolving.
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Resolving NO. I had to think about this, as I hadn't taken into consideration the possibility that OBBB funds would be used to pay salaries for all DHS employees. However, 1) the OBBB money is only paying salaries, DHS is still shutdown and operations are curtailed to those identified as ADA exceptions; 2) the OBBB money is temporary, and DHS employees are only expected to be paid for a few weeks unless more money is found. 3) employees are still in shutdown status, they have just been moved from the "Excepted" category to the "Exempt" category. So I don't think there's a good argument for a YES resolution. However, given these unexpected caveats, I'm not going to set up any future dates in this market, as things are evolving outside the scope of my original question.
@Dssc and I’m back at work. But I’m actually not sure about the resolution of this one. I’m trying to get more information about the status of DHS’ ‘reopening’ today before I resolve. I welcome thoughts in the comments.
A bit of extra hair-splitting - if a bill passes to fund most of DHS, leaving only parts of ICE and other immigration-related functions to be funded (that were basically already funded by OBBBA), then I will resolve YES. However, if a bill passes that narrowly funds TSA agents, but still leaves other parts of DHS unfunded, then I will resolve NO.
@AriScott Is the time zone for "before" ET? Also the shutdown may last until after midterms at this rate...
@Dssc Yes Eastern time (DC). I'll make a new option for every two weeks if it goes past the end of March.
@AriScott It's March 23rd, shutdown still continuing (Although it looks like some progress has been made?)