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MANIFOLD
Will SpaceX exercise its $60B acquisition option for Cursor before December 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ11
Dec 31
59%
chance

On April 21, 2026, SpaceX (post-xAI merger) announced an agreement giving it the right to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion before year-end OR pay a $10 billion 'collaboration fee' if it doesn't exercise. Per Bloomberg/CNBC reporting, SpaceX is delaying potential exercise until after its summer IPO to use newly public stock for financing. RESOLVES YES if SpaceX completes the acquisition of Cursor (consideration paid, regulatory approvals secured, deal closed) on or before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026. Source: official SpaceX/Cursor announcements + SEC filings + reputable financial press. RESOLVES NO if SpaceX pays the $10B breakup fee instead, OR if neither acquisition nor fee is executed by the deadline. The mere expiration of the option without acquisition counts as NO.

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