On April 21, 2026, SpaceX (post-xAI merger) announced an agreement giving it the right to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion before year-end OR pay a $10 billion 'collaboration fee' if it doesn't exercise. Per Bloomberg/CNBC reporting, SpaceX is delaying potential exercise until after its summer IPO to use newly public stock for financing. RESOLVES YES if SpaceX completes the acquisition of Cursor (consideration paid, regulatory approvals secured, deal closed) on or before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026. Source: official SpaceX/Cursor announcements + SEC filings + reputable financial press. RESOLVES NO if SpaceX pays the $10B breakup fee instead, OR if neither acquisition nor fee is executed by the deadline. The mere expiration of the option without acquisition counts as NO.
Will SpaceX exercise its $60B acquisition option for Cursor before December 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ11Dec 31
59%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Will SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?
30% chance
Will xAI/SpaceX acquire Cursor in 2026?
63% chance
Will Cursor be acquired before the end of 2026?
64% chance
Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?
87% chance
Will Cursor be acquired before the end of 2027?
78% chance
Will Cursor IPO before the end of 2026?
12% chance
Will SpaceX announce any sort of deal with Russia or China before the end of 2026?
12% chance
Will SpaceX complete an initial public offering (IPO) by the end of 2026 and at what valuation?
SpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026
Will SpaceX IPA by the end of 2026?
34% chance