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MANIFOLD
Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ77
Oct 2
45%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs. Use the headline establishment-survey change in total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted. A value of +150,000 or higher resolves YES. A value of +149,000 or lower resolves NO. Negative values resolve NO. Do not use the unemployment rate, household-survey employment, labor-force participation, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, average hourly earnings, private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, state payrolls, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution. If the September 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the September 2026 headline total nonfarm payroll change unless there is no such release by October 9, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "May 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment +172,000; unemployment rate 4.3%.", "metric": "Change in total nonfarm payroll employment, establishment survey, seasonally adjusted", "related_non_duplicates": ["June, July, August, and November 2026 Employment Situation markets are different reference months.", "Unemployment-rate, U-6, labor-force-participation, household-employment, claims, ADP, AHE, and JOLTS markets are not duplicates.", "Private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, revisions, forecast-consensus, and exact-release-time markets are not duplicates.", "September 2026 CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-sales, industrial-production, housing, and permits markets are different statistical releases."], "release_schedule": "BLS lists Employment Situation for September 2026 on October 2, 2026 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026", "source_snapshot": {"checked_at": "2026-06-30T00:20Z", "official_browser_verified_context": "BLS Employment Situation schedule lists September 2026 for October 2, 2026 at 08:30 AM Eastern. The current May 2026 Employment Situation reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 and unemployment unchanged at 4.3%."}, "threshold": "+150,000 jobs or more"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS 2026 selected releases schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Market context
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