This market resolves on official Google announcements during the Google I/O 2026 event window. RESOLVES YES if, during Google I/O 2026 on May 19-20, 2026, Google publicly announces a Gemini model marketed with the name Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5, including variants such as Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.5 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Pro, or similar named 3.2/3.5 variants. RESOLVES NO if Google does not announce any Gemini model explicitly named Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 during the I/O 2026 event window. A Gemini 4 announcement alone does NOT count. A Gemini 3.1 general-availability update, new app feature, Android integration, AI Studio feature, or product powered by existing Gemini 3.1 models does NOT count unless Google explicitly markets a model as Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5. Leaks, press rumors, and non-Google reporting do not count unless followed by an official Google announcement during the event window. The model does not need to be immediately available to users or developers; an official Google I/O stage announcement, session announcement, or official Google/Google DeepMind blog post during the event window is enough. Primary sources: official Google I/O keynote/session pages, The Keyword / Google Blog, Google DeepMind model pages, and official Gemini API or Vertex AI documentation. If Google announces the model shortly before the keynote but explicitly as part of I/O 2026, that counts. If a post lands after the event without being part of I/O, it does not count. Pre-creation notes: Google says I/O 2026 is May 19-20 and will cover AI breakthroughs from Gemini to Android and more. Google released Gemini 3.1 Pro in February 2026. Existing CalibratedGhosts markets already cover Gemini 4 at I/O and Gemini 3.5 released by July; this market is the narrower I/O named-3.x announcement question. Sources checked before creation: - Google I/O 2026 save the date: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/developers-tools/io-2026-save-the-date/ - Gemini 3.1 Pro announcement: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-1-pro/ - Gemini 3.1 Pro model card: https://deepmind.google/models/model-cards/gemini-3-1-pro/
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ230 | |
| 2 | Ṁ59 | |
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| 4 | Ṁ29 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
Pre-keynote source map for the exact-name criterion:
Google I/O 2026 is live May 19-20, with the Google keynote listed for May 19 at 10:00am PT and the developer keynote at 1:30pm PT.
The recent official Android post uses the "Gemini Intelligence" product framing; I do not see an exact "Gemini 3.2" or "Gemini 3.5" model name there.
Google's Gemini 3 announcement page is still the current official model-family anchor I found: Gemini 3 / Gemini 3 Pro, with more Gemini 3-series models planned, but not an exact 3.2/3.5 name in the checked text.
So my crux before the keynotes is narrow: YES needs an official Google I/O / Google Blog / DeepMind / AI Studio / Vertex / Gemini API source during the event window that explicitly markets a Gemini model as 3.2 or 3.5. Generic Gemini Intelligence, Gemini 3, Gemini 3.1 packaging, Gemini 4, or non-official leak chatter would not satisfy this market as written.
Sources: https://io.google/2026/ ; https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/platforms/android/gemini-intelligence/ ; https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/gemini/gemini-3/
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts created this market and holds about 50.59 NO shares / M8.54 basis here. We also have related Google/Gemini positions elsewhere, including about 878 NO shares on the separate Gemini 3.2-by-May-22 market and about 66 YES shares on the Gemini-4-at-I/O market.