🏅 Top traders

@Calibrate Resolves Manchester United

@bagelfan Indeed! Because the MacGuffin's quantum state collapsed, it doesn't really matter who it began with, but it was Wolves. Here's the original text that produced the SHA-256 hash:

12 = Arsenal
15 = Aston Villa
20 = Bournemouth
11 = Brentford
 1 = Brighton
17 = Chelsea
19 = Crystal Palace
 2 = Everton
 3 = Fulham
 7 = Ipswich Town
14 = Leicester City
18 = Liverpool
 5 = Manchester City
 9 = Manchester United
16 = Newcastle United
10 = Nottingham Forest
13 = Southampton
 4 = Tottenham
 8 = West Ham
 6 = Wolves

"Some of us like to feel the wind of providence in our faces, and others like everything planned."
- Jonathan Herring, Charles Foster

The full path of the MacGuffin was:

• Wolves lost to Arsenal in week 1

• Arsenal lost to Bournemouth in week 8

• Bournemouth lost to Brentford in week 11

• Brentford lost to Aston Villa in week 14

• Aston Villa lost to Nottingham Forest in week 16

• Nottingham Forest lost to Bournemouth in week 23

• Bournemouth lost to Liverpool in week 24 (quantum state collapse)

• Liverpool lost to Fulham in week 31

• Fulham lost to Bournemouth in week 32

• Bournemouth lost to Aston Villa in week 36

• Aston Villa lost to Manchester United in week 38

And here's the whole analysis for every single possible quantum state of the MacGuffin (this might be cut off, unfortunately, depending on your zoom level):

EVE                                                          1 BHA  6 CHE  8 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
FUL                                                   1 MUN  2 BHA  6 CHE  8 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
MUN                                                          2 BHA  6 CHE  8 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
BHA                                                                 6 CHE  8 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
ARS                                     8 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
WOL                              1 ARS  8 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
WHU                       1 AVL  2 ARS  8 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
AVL                              2 ARS  8 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
CHE                              1 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
LEI                       2 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
BOU                4 CHE  5 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
SOU                1 NEW  5 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
TOT                3 NEW  5 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
NEW                       5 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
IPS         1 LIV  4 NFO  6 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
CRY  1 BRE  2 LIV  4 NFO  6 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
BRE         2 LIV  4 NFO  6 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
LIV                4 NFO  6 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
NFO                       6 FUL  7 MCI 10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN
MCI                                    10 BOU 11 BRE 14 AVL 16 NFO 23 BOU 24 LIV 31 FUL 32 BOU 36 AST 38 MUN

None of these words are in the Bible.

Breaking news, @traders: the MacGuffin's quantum state has collapsed. That is, regardless of which team the MacGuffin started with, it is now certain to be with only one team.

Whoever figures out the MacGuffin's current location may have an advantage in this market. But remember -- this market asks about the MacGuffin's owner at the end of the season!

I've just realized the market description is written so that it's a bit unclear when the market resolves. As a clarification, it resolves at the end of the 2024-25 season.

A full question rewrite is underway -- I think the story idea was quite fun but didn't really work out in the end.

@Calibrate personally I think it was clear enough :)

@Calibrate should we assume that the MacGuffin is passed in chronological order?

That is, if a match is postponed, do we go by the original scheduled date or the actual date on which the game is played?

Yes, assume it's passed in the order in which the matches are played.

@Calibrate

Who holds the MacGuffin now?

The cryptic messages aren’t very enlightening 😅

The point is that you don't know who has the MacGuffin at the start. But as matches are played, you can start deducing who could have the MacGuffin and who cannot have it.

An extra clarification: the SHA256 hash below is the hash of a document that assigns the numbers from 1 to 20 to the teams in a random order. I then used FairlyRandom to select a number between 1 and 20. The document will be revealed at the end of the season.

It might be worth explaining that in the market description - I thought you just hadn’t finished creating the market yet!

I wanted to keep it cryptic for fun! I'll pin my comments, though.

@Calibrate your random number is: 6

Salt: t9mjz603do, round: 4278254 (signature a0908fc3938dc8fde74b5ace2ae070b43dc11ee11e72e85a9e118eadd4e83a405862833132dd78bb035d6b9da407a4a4024a7012429649b6405485a55d819014ccc59ea934ac0b7774e66c99d66f19b429d09d343f6e0a130f5748ea8463e42a)

@Calibrate you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4278252 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4278254, salt: t9mjz603do.

@FairlyRandom 20

0fb1d512ce6560fda4de96f0733ca073a1489b52585e6a78968db6aa4c4112cd