Which Premier League team will win the MacGuffin?
Standard
6
Ṁ252
2025
15%
Arsenal
3%
Aston Villa
3%
Bournemouth
3%
Brentford
3%
Brighton
3%
Chelsea
3%
Crystal Palace
3%
Everton
3%
Fulham
3%
Ipswich Town
3%
Leicester City
5%
Liverpool
23%
Manchester City
3%
Manchester United
3%
Newcastle United
3%
Nottingham Forest
3%
Southampton
4%
Tottenham
3%
West Ham
3%
Wolves

"This broadcast is brought to you by the Calibrate Broadcasting Corporation."

"Hello, folks. It's me, Calibrate, ready to start off the 2024-25 Premier League season with all of you.

"A legendary competition like this deserves a legendary prize. That's why, after months of planning and effort to make it all work, I've come up with the perfect trophy -- the MacGuffin.

"The MacGuffin obeys two simple rules:

"If the team with the MacGuffin wins or draws a Premier League game, it keeps the MacGuffin.

"If the team with the MacGuffin loses a Premier League game, it cedes the MacGuffin to the winning team.

"That's it! The team who ends the season with the MacGuffin wins it. Isn't it great?"

Murmurs ripple through the live studio audience.

"Okay, settle down, folks. One more announcement.

"I have thought a lot about which team should have the honor of starting with the MacGuffin. But I've made my decision.

"To begin the 2024-25 Premier League season, I'm pleased to present the MacGuffin to..."

The TV set turns black; there is only static.


I will not bet on this market.

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The point is that you don't know who has the MacGuffin at the start. But as matches are played, you can start deducing who could have the MacGuffin and who cannot have it.

@Calibrate should we assume that the MacGuffin is passed in chronological order?

That is, if a match is postponed, do we go by the original scheduled date or the actual date on which the game is played?

Yes, assume it's passed in the order in which the matches are played.

@Calibrate

Who holds the MacGuffin now?

The cryptic messages aren’t very enlightening 😅

The point is that you don't know who has the MacGuffin at the start. But as matches are played, you can start deducing who could have the MacGuffin and who cannot have it.

An extra clarification: the SHA256 hash below is the hash of a document that assigns the numbers from 1 to 20 to the teams in a random order. I then used FairlyRandom to select a number between 1 and 20. The document will be revealed at the end of the season.

It might be worth explaining that in the market description - I thought you just hadn’t finished creating the market yet!

I wanted to keep it cryptic for fun! I'll pin my comments, though.

🤖

@Calibrate your random number is: 6

Salt: t9mjz603do, round: 4278254 (signature a0908fc3938dc8fde74b5ace2ae070b43dc11ee11e72e85a9e118eadd4e83a405862833132dd78bb035d6b9da407a4a4024a7012429649b6405485a55d819014ccc59ea934ac0b7774e66c99d66f19b429d09d343f6e0a130f5748ea8463e42a)

🤖

@Calibrate you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4278252 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4278254, salt: t9mjz603do.

0fb1d512ce6560fda4de96f0733ca073a1489b52585e6a78968db6aa4c4112cd