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MANIFOLD
Will I weigh less than 149lbs by market close?
19
Ṁ105Ṁ1.5k
resolved Feb 27
Resolved
YES

Gonna buy out a bunch (unspecified limit) of YES if it goes below 99% been slacking on my diet. This morning I was 150.5 but after using the bathroom.

  • Update 2026-02-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on weight measured on the morning of February 27th, 2026 (not the close date of February 28th).

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bought Ṁ57 YES

Them tricks worked

@Cactus how dehydrated are you to lose 2 pounds in a day 😭

@Mochi I wasn't totally empty during yesterdays weigh in; stopped drinking water after late afternoon yesterday

I feel like losing 1lb artificially is possible if he’s not eating today @Cactus how committed are you?

@Mochi imma get a haircut and go to the sauna or for a run to sweat, but won't amputate my leg. Finished all of today's eating by now

Can’t help you with so little liquidity

@MachiNi problem is realized my target was a bit too aggressive because I was relatively empty on market creation day so I couldn't put more into YES. But we will see, i think this did still help my diet and I might be able to make it resolve in my favor given fluctuations

@Cactus what I mean is no one can help you get an accurate probability when betting 3 on NO drops the probability by 30 points and buys the bettor very few shares.

@MachiNi point isn't to get an accurate probability, I've been consistently punting into YES intentionally as motivation

@Cactus you’ll be more strongly motivated betting against liquidity. And NO holders will be more strongly motivated to bet against you if you provide liquidity. But none of this really matters.

@MachiNi yes if I just bought more YES I'm sure I'd be even more motivated. But 1k is a good amount given the aggressive target imo.

Holy shit it's gonna be close

@Cactus what’s today’s weight?

@Mochi 149.8

Close time is early morning, I guess I didn't specify if this is the low or the ending weight so I'll be generous to @Mochi and say I'll weigh myself on the morning of the 27th and use that value.

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 99.0% order

@Cactus fill me at 99, I will order tons of Taco Bell’s to your door

@Mochi I will throw up the taco bells and lose weight because they don't taste good

@Mochi sonnet 4.6 fried chicken recipe is too good