Resolution Criteria

The October 2025 CPI report was originally scheduled for release on November 13, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market resolves YES if the October 2025 CPI data is officially released by the BLS. It resolves NO if the data is not released by January 31, 2026.

Background

BLS staff were furloughed during the government shutdown, preventing the agency from collecting data throughout October. Due to the ongoing 2025 United States federal government shutdown, the report is now unlikely to be released. The October CPI report may never be compiled because the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses in-person visits, so the data can't be collected retroactively.

Considerations

Released data must be based at least partially on newly collected data for October for this market to resolve YES. If the data is retroactively backfilled on an interpolation only basis, I would not count that as a YES resolution. I will use my discretion for ambiguous cases and will not bet in this market.