CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, has had electronics seized by the FBI. The source cited by media today (13. Nov) claims "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election,"
This market resolves YES if it seems most likely that the FBI action was effectively legally groundless and politically motivated. Market resolves NO if it was based on well founded suspicion of illegal behavior*
I’ll use my best judgement, based on credible reporting, to adjudicate at end of 2025. Market may resolve sooner if overwhelming evidence of one or the other resolution is forthcoming.
I will not bet on this market.
*edit: based on input from a comment, adding the addendum “..that would likely be pursued against the CEO of a similar betting company that did not cover elections” to the NO criteria
1,000
3.00@dawnlightmelody That would be a YES. Litmus test being “does it seem most likely the FBI would have pursued a similar investigation against the CEO of a betting company that did not allow election betting?”
Obviously still going to be some judgement in edge cases. Can just say I’ll do my best and I don’t have a horse in this race.