CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, has had electronics seized by the FBI. The source cited by media today (13. Nov) claims "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election,"
This market resolves YES if it seems most likely that the FBI action was effectively legally groundless and politically motivated. Market resolves NO if it was based on well founded suspicion of illegal behavior*
I’ll use my best judgement, based on credible reporting, to adjudicate at end of 2025. Market may resolve sooner if overwhelming evidence of one or the other resolution is forthcoming.
I will not bet on this market.
*edit: based on input from a comment, adding the addendum “..that would likely be pursued against the CEO of a similar betting company that did not cover elections” to the NO criteria
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@traders No by default seems the fairest based on no evidence. Please let me know if we missed anything.
@EvanDaniel no sources from me. There doesn’t seem to be much info on it since Shayne complained about it. I don’t think it’s true, we’d have heard more about it and I think trump would be happy to point out if it was political retribution. @traders anyone have opinions
@Jack1 @EvanDaniel I see no evidence favoring a yes resolution and therefore think it should resolve no or N/A. I’m fine either way. Personally I think the presumption should be that it was not politically motivated and therefore it should resolve no since no evidence has been provided of that, but the description is somewhat ambiguous so 50/50 or N/A might be the most “fair” resolution.
@dawnlightmelody That would be a YES. Litmus test being “does it seem most likely the FBI would have pursued a similar investigation against the CEO of a betting company that did not allow election betting?”
Obviously still going to be some judgement in edge cases. Can just say I’ll do my best and I don’t have a horse in this race.