Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of December?
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resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

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@CGPGrey Can you respond to this ping, please?
Thank you.

⚠AFK Creator

📢Resolved to NO ; Proof From SocialBlade

@SirCryptomind CGP Grey is on record on his podcast saying he hit 1 billion. The spirit of the market is the internal YouTube number that includes unlisted videos. Since creator is AFK I think this should be N/A

@wilsonkime I resolved to publicly available data. There is no proof unless you believe "just words" someone says and no proof to back it up.
Also, the spirit of the market being so low for so long is a good indication of what others may have been trading on based on publicly available data.

@SirCryptomind that's what I was trading on initially in the market as well but after hearing directly from the market maker I decided it wasn't worth the risk of the maker coming back and resolving the way they intended. There is nothing in there market about resolving to publicly available data. I don't think it's good practice for a market to resolve one way if the market maker returns or another way if they don't. That's why N/A makes more sense.

predicted YES

@wilsonkime fwiw as someone who was a pretty committed YES holder I think this is a reasonable outcome

predicted NO

@Stralor fwiw as someone who was a pretty commited NO holder I feel pretty scammed

predicted YES
predicted NO

Wanted to share this little graph that I checked in on once in a while and found fun to follow along. You can basically see an exponential process right there:

NO, but close!

bought Ṁ22 of YES

Going to take a stab and say this should resolve yes. This market does not specify how it will resolve, and the market creator has abandoned the site, but talks extensively about how they’ve hit a billion views and that to them, the dashboard number is the number that matters. The creator publicly announcing this announcing this should be enough to resolve this market yes, but not the markets which specifically use the ‘about’ tab on YouTube in the resolution criteria.

predicted NO

@c0m That seems pretty disingenous to the spirit of the market, though. All the other markets have resolved to publicly available data, would seem reasonable that this does too?

predicted YES

@ScipioFabius Other markets resolved to publicly available data in the absence of CGP Grey to resolve the question. His own metrics are more relevant and accurate to the spirit of the question and weeks ago he announced that the milestone was passed. The podcast should be enough to make this a straightforward yes.

predicted YES

@NcyRocks Why did this market resolve to the about page rather than the creator’s own announcement without discussion? These are authoritative sources at odds with each other, blindly resolving this yes in the face of no resolution criteria is wrong.

@c0m I saw @oh's comment and figured that someone else would correct me if I got it wrong - many thanks for doing so! I'll leave this one for @CGPGrey.

@NcyRocks @c0m Sorry about that! My bad

predicted NO

@NcyRocks Any timeline for how long we waiting for @CGPGrey to resolve this, and if he doesn't, who judges how this should go?

predicted NO

@c0m Can you please point to a timestamp in the podcast where he points out what metrics he used? Also, in the market where the refference to the about page is made, he also has linked this question, so would make sense that the same criteria applies to these markets?

@ScipioFabius I think two weeks is a reasonable time to wait. I think I’d like to understand why there’s a difference between the creator’s count and the count on the About page before this market is resolved.

predicted YES

From 11 minutes onwards. Here's some copyedited quotes from the transcript:

"I'm here to say that I just did it [...], of today I have 1 billion, 7 million lifetime views on the channel."

"So just over the finish line."

"There's two different metrics on YouTube: there's the public metric of how many views are there but you as the Creator have a private metric. [...] I'm just looking at my like private dashboard and this [private] number is getting closer and closer to a billion, and it's like this [number] is the one"

"I log to YouTube now and it has 1B for the views"

We've got no reason to doubt the legitimacy of this claim and the creator says that they consider the goal to be achieved.

@NcyRocks unlisted videos don't count towards the public count. But they were key for his most recent large project.

predicted YES

I think this and the 2024 market should have flipped probabilities

predicted NO

@MordecaiWeynberg Why do you think so?

predicted YES

@ScipioFabius In cortex, Gray stated that he's changed his workflow to not release the first video he made this year and then each video he makes after that compare it to the first video and release whichever the best one is in late November to maximise the amount of views he gets in December

predicted NO

@MordecaiWeynberg This still implies just one video that would theoretically perform very well. He has 5 videos that have gained more then 20M views. Even if you factor in right now a video that would perform this well, Gray would still need about 8M views a month to make it this year, which seems rather unlikely in repect to the current pace.