PAW10: Meta-fundraising organization for animals
38
704
1.2K
resolved Jul 27
Resolved
NO

As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Meta-fundraising organization for animals" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention?

Idea overview

This charity idea focuses on creating a meta-fundraising organization that conducts targeted outreach to high-net-worth individuals, encouraging them to support effective animal charities. By leveraging the financial resources of affluent donors, the charity would seek to amplify the impact of animal welfare organizations that demonstrate evidence-based effectiveness and high potential for positive change. Through personalized engagement and education, the meta-fundraising organization would aim to foster long-term partnerships between philanthropists and animal charities, maximizing the resources available to tackle pressing animal welfare issues.

Preventive animal welfare

This year our focus is on interventions and policies that prevent future harms done to animals, as opposed to solving current problems. We will be looking for interventions that, as well as having some short run evidence of impact, will prevent future problems, i.e., have the biggest impact on farmed animals in the future, say 35 years from now.

We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.

About the contest

In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected

  • You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.

  • You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.

For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

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@Lorenzo @Austin could u take a look at this please, I'm not really familiar with the markets and criteria of how they were originally resolved.

Also, this market may also need changing to 3 depending on a re-resolution: /JesusDeSivar/how-many-preventive-animal-welfare

predicted YES

@DavidChee I've pinged Sam Hilton (director of research at CE) about how we should proceed; he's apparently out of office until Aug 29th.

predicted YES

@Austin thank you!

predicted YES

@Austin was this clarified, or not worth the hassle?

predicted NO

Related market:

predicted YES

Although this charity has possibly the biggest multiple and because of that arguably the most impact, it has direct impact, only indirect impact which is harder to measure. Furthermore, it might come at a cost of other effective charities in other cause areas, like global poverty. If they convince a wealthy philanthropist to not spend his wealth on the Against Malaria Fund but on the Good Food Institute instead, are we really better off?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Unclear what the counterfactual of the donated money would be. Pull it away from non effective charities or from other effective causes?

bought Ṁ25 of YES

While I agree that this has some overlap with other work, specific outreach efforts to individuals are not being done nearly as much. That said, I do have concerns about whether the funding obtained would result in a decrease in funding elsewhere, as it would be difficult to find people willing to fund these causes who aren't already funding other (potentially highly impactful) causes. I don't think this is a likely choice, but I think it is currently undervalued.

I recommend looking at REG. I think it's very easy for an organization like this to drastically inflate their impact. It's very tempting and thus possible for a flywheel mechanism to occur here.

seems to overlap strongly with ACE's pre-existing work:
https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charity-fund/

predicted NO

GPT-4 ranked this as #5