In how many hours will GPT-4o be live on ChatGPT?
In how many hours will GPT-4o be live on ChatGPT?
5
100Ṁ715resolved May 19
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
GPT-4o is supposed to be released for free on ChatGPT, but I don't see it there yet and I'm impatient. I'm outsourcing to Manifold so I don't get distracted checking.
This market resolves as soon as someone gives convincing evidence, such as a screenshot, that they can access GPT-4o on ChatGPT for free as a random member of the public. If someone posts evidence before May 13 at 2 PM PST, this market resolves to 0%; from 2-3 PM would be 1%, etc. If it takes more than 100 hours for this to happen, it resolves to 100%.
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GPT-4o was released on ChatGPT at some point, but I'm not sure when exactly. No one posted evidence, so I'm resolving to 100% regardless
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.