Will there a real Wikipedia article about rationalussy before 2025?
23
166
170
2025
1%
chance

There is already a draft article:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft:Rationalussy

For an article to count as "real", it must:

  • Be an official published article, not just a draft

  • Actually be about rationalussy

  • Exist for at least a week without being deleted. The week just has to start in 2024, even if the article is created less than a week before 2025.

Conflux-style Disclaimer™: I will use common sense/"spirit of the market" when resolving this. If someone makes an article that is obviously bogus or doesn't meet Wikipedia's notability requirements, but it manages to slip through the cracks and last more than a week anyway, it doesn't count.

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Why is this tagged #Science?

@ArmandodiMatteo I think it got tagged automatically when i created it

Dear potential traders and/or visitors from Wikipedia: please note that the Manifold community guidelines explicitly disallow incentivizing violating other web sites' ToS:

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Guidance-for-running-a-market-8cb4257ed3644ec9a1d6cc6c705f7c77

Please don't make the mods take action here.

@EvanDaniel The criteria say it has to exist for at least one week. That is intended to prevent Wikipedia vandalism

@ButtocksCocktwosten is one week long enough? Perhaps 28 days would be safer.

@HankyUSA I think one week is long enough. Are there any fake wikipedia articles that took longer than that to delete?

@ButtocksCocktwosten Yeah, one week seems like it should be enough to me. But sometimes people ignore things like that and do dumb things anyway. If everyone is smart and careful about it this is probably fine, but sometimes that feels like asking for rather a lot.

I don't think 28 days vs 7 would matter much.

@EvanDaniel I added a disclaimer to make sure nobody can sneak a fake article onto Wikipedia for more than a week to make it resolve yes.

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