Must be at least an hour long to count as a movie.
Clarifications:
Any genre of movie counts, fiction or nonfiction.
It doesn't matter how the movie is released. No theatrical showings or physical copies are required as long as it is released somewhere (e.g., a movie uploaded to YouTube). It also does not need to be a commercial film.
There must actually be some form of motion occuring on screen and scenes portraying the events that occur in the movie. Narration alone does not count as a movie, nor does a slideshow.
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We have an ambiguous resolution. It's impossible to confirm if the movie meets the criteria because I can't watch it, and it's unclear if it counts as having been released at all, since it gives an error when you try to access it. What do traders think? Also, @oh, do you have a copy of the movie that you can show us through other means?
@oh when I click on it, it says, "This video was removed because it was too long". What is happening? Is rationalussy being censored???
@nikki i don't think i can make a one hour movie in 36 minutes. i need at least the rest of the day pacific time
Friends, I had a horrible nightmare last night. In my nightmare, someone had created an hour long video of a voice talking about rationalussy. For most of the video, all that was on screen was an AI-generated face that slightly twitched and had a moving nouth to make it look like it was speaking. However, just as I was about to say that this didn't count, I noticed a single scene, about a minute long, that was actually filmed and thrown into the middle of the movie in order to technically count as having a scene portraying the events that occur. Then I had to decide whether this really counts as a Rationalussy Movie
Prospective rationalussy filmmakers, please don't do something like this. I will be considering whether films fit the spirit of the market. Basically, just considered whether it makes any sense to call the film a "movie".
@ButtocksCocktoasten I feel like you are responsible for increasing the chances of that kind of lovecraftian act of boredom entering the world 🤣
I’m a new user, and was curious - is brazen market manipulation allowed? Would it be allowed or not allowed for a user to claim that they seriously wanted to make this movie in the comments section, make a big bet (effectively turning it into a personal goals bet) and then everyone then has the chance to weigh the probability of it effecting the outcome. What if they didn’t declare it and attempted that same manipulation?
@EmeraldPham Would be completely allowed! I would even say NO shares in this market is a "bounty" on someone producing the movie. And everyone would approve of it if you did it for the mana.
It would be dishonest to say that you'll make a movie to manipulate the market with no intention of producing it.
It would also be okay if you made the movie in secret while accumulating a position, too. That's sort of like "I'll build a position at good prices and if I get enough I'll actually make it. Otherwise I'll take the small loss." You can even build a position and sell part of your shares to someone else to make the movie, once it gets big enough to be worth selling.
@oh I guess a rationalussy documentary would still count as long as it meets the other criteria.
@EmeraldPham People make profits on Manifold markets by making bets and then making the market come true, well, not all the time, but with some frequency. I personally made bets on https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/spicy-warning-will-someone-create-r and https://manifold.markets/brubsby/will-anyone-use-my-thriftbooks-sign-09e2e90dfd3b and then took the actions that caused them to resolve YES, and several of the people with bets on https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to are working on prompts.
@EmeraldPham Oh, but, um, do not try to make a lot of mana by betting NO on, say, https://manifold.markets/SEE/will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ja , then trying to make the NO come true, okay?
@SEE Perhaps you will take the action that makes this come true? I am itching to see the Rationalussy Movie.