If presidential candidates tweet the word "rationalussy", will they win?
Plus
39
Ṁ14kNov 6
0.0%
Biden tweets rationalussy; Biden wins
0.0%
Biden tweets rationalussy; Biden loses
0.1%
Trump tweets rationalussy; Trump wins
0.1%
Trump tweets rationalussy; Trump loses
0.2%
Both tweet rationalussy; Biden wins
0.0%
Both tweet rationalussy; Trump wins
0.0%
Both tweet rationalussy; neither wins
1.0%
Neither tweets rationalussy; Biden wins
95%
Neither tweets rationalussy; Trump wins
4%
Neither tweets rationalussy; neither wins
This market exists to see whether tweeting "rationalussy" affects a candidates chances of victory. The first part of each options resolves based on whether Donald and/or Joe Biden write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" before Election Day. If only one of them tweets it, then it will resolve to one of the "Biden tweets rationalussy" or "Trump tweets rationalussy" options, depending on who tweets it.
The second part resolves according to who wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This part is not conditional on either candidate winning their primary.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2024?
28% chance
Will Destiny say Rationalussy during 2024?
15% chance
Who will be the next Speaker of the Rationalussy?
Will Elon Musk tweet “rationalussy” by end of 2024?
4% chance
Will rationalussy be a major topic in the 2024 presidential debates?
1% chance
Will the left/right culture war come for rationalussy before the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will two school age children become the nation’s foremost political thinkers in 2024 for their critique of rationalussy?
4% chance
Which of these people will say Rationalussy first?