Will this question get more than 50% yesses?
21
250Ṁ1027
Feb 25
51%
chance

  • Update 2025-02-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Metric Clarification

    • The market outcome will be determined by the chance percentage displayed at the top left of the page.

    • This percentage represents the calculated probability of a 'Yes' outcome, not the number of traders betting 'Yes'.

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The standard way to (re)phrase this market (and your related markets) is probably along the lines of: “Will this market close above 50%?”

bought Ṁ15 NO

To clarify, this means more than 50% of traders betting yes, right?

@TheAllMemeingEye @BryantYu Huh, that's weird. In this market, which has the exactly the same wording except for one number, I was told that the criteria was that the "chance" of the market had to be above 69%, not the number of traders: https://manifold.markets/BryantYu/will-this-question-get-more-than-69

@luvkprovider FYI I am new to Manifold markets, so I'm sorry if I messed up the wording. To clarity once more, the "chance" I am referring to is the percentage on the top left side of the page (see image attached).

@BryantYu lol this is the second time in 24h a market creator has scammed me by switching the meaning of a market, fortunately I didn't lose too much but it's still annoying

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