UPDATE 12/20/23 11:03 am Pacific - Now feels like the most random possible time I can resolve this question. Resolving as "YES." Thank you for participating.
Question Focus: This market is about predicting whether the specific question within the Manifold Prediction Market – "Will This Specific Manifold Prediction Market Question Be Resolved Before 2100?" – will be resolved by its creator before the year 2035
"Yes" Resolution: A "Yes" resolution occurs if the question creator resolves this specific question any time before 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2034. The reasons for this resolution can be varied and may include achieving a particular outcome or an arbitrary decision by the creator.
"No" Resolution with Admin Intervention: If the question remains unresolved past the deadline of December 31, 2034 at 11:59 PM Pacific, it resolves as "No." This could be due to various reasons like the question creator's death, incapacitation, forgetfulness, loss of access to their account, or even a deliberate choice to leave it open. In such a scenario, where the question remains unresolved, partcipants in this Manifold Prediction Market are invited to reach out to admins to step in and resolve the market appropriately after Dec. 31, 2034, ensuring a fair and conclusive outcome if I am not able to resolve.
Arbitrary Nature of Resolution: The decision to resolve the question is primarily at the discretion of its creator, highlighting the arbitrary nature of this market. The invitation to reach out to admins in the event of non-resolution provides an additional layer of governance to ensure the market's closure.
1,000
3.00
@VAPOR Then you'll have to wait until 2035 and reach out to this site's admins, as noted above, if it's still around.
"In such a scenario, where the question remains unresolved, partcipants in this Manifold Prediction Market are invited to reach out to admins to step in and resolve the market appropriately after Dec. 31, 2034, ensuring a fair and conclusive outcome if I am not able to resolve."
@BrianCaulfield so dead tomorrow, wait a decade, then the market is arbitrarily resolved by an admin, not any one option, any option they feel like?
@VAPOR The admin should resolve "No" if they follow the terms and conditions laid out above, but, obviously, I may not be around to enforce.
""No" Resolution with Admin Intervention: If the question remains unresolved past the deadline of December 31, 2034 at 11:59 PM Pacific, it resolves as "No." This could be due to various reasons like the question creator's death, incapacitation, forgetfulness, loss of access to their account, or even a deliberate choice to leave it open. In such a scenario, where the question remains unresolved, partcipants in this Manifold Prediction Market are invited to reach out to admins to step in and resolve the market appropriately after Dec. 31, 2034, ensuring a fair and conclusive outcome if I am not able to resolve."
That said, could resolve "Yes" tomorrow, next week, or in ten years, for a reason or no reason whatsoever.