Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization

For the purposes of this market, an "extraterrestrial civilization" is defined as any organized society or community originating from outside Earth that displays one or more of the following characteristics:

1. Technological Artifacts: Objects or signals clearly created by non-human intelligence, such as advanced machinery, spacecraft, or artificial structures.

2. Communication Signals: Radio, laser, or other forms of communication that unmistakably originate from an intelligent source.

3. Biological Evidence: Life forms or biological signatures that demonstrate complex, organized life processes indicative of a developed society.

4. Astrosocial Phenomena: Observable large-scale alterations or structures within a star system or galaxy that suggest the presence of an advanced society, such as Dyson spheres or large space habitats.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" if any of the following occur by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2100:

1. Peer-Reviewed Publication: A credible and peer-reviewed scientific paper is published in a recognized journal confirming the discovery of evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization as defined above.

2. Official Announcement: A major international space agency (e.g., NASA, ESA, CNSA) or an equivalent reputable scientific organization officially announces the verified discovery of an extraterrestrial civilization.

3. International Consensus: A consensus among the international scientific community, reflected through endorsements by at least three prominent scientific organizations, acknowledging the discovery of evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization.

Additional Notes

• Reevaluation Period: If initial claims are disputed or disproven within 12 months of the announcement, the market resolution will be reassessed based on the latest available evidence.

• Exclusion Clause: Discoveries of microbial life or non-sentient extraterrestrial organisms will not qualify for resolution. The evidence must clearly indicate the presence of a civilization as defined above.

• Verification: The criteria for technological artifacts, communication signals, biological evidence, or astrosocial phenomena must be confirmed through rigorous scientific methods and withstand scrutiny from the global scientific community.

Market Example

Suppose a new set of signals is detected in 2080, initially thought to be of extraterrestrial origin. If these signals are later confirmed through multiple peer-reviewed studies and official announcements by major space agencies to be from an extraterrestrial civilization, the market will resolve to "YES." Conversely, if the signals are debunked or found to be from a natural source within the 12-month reevaluation period, the market will resolve to "NO."

This structure ensures that the market question is clear, actionable, and based on robust scientific criteria, providing a fair basis for resolution.