Will Hunter Biden be indicted in 2022?

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resolved Jan 1

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This resolves to "Yes" if Hunter Biden is indicted or arrested for any crime by the end of 2022.

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Arb: https://manifold.markets/dadonk/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20-90e270df1fb8

predictedYES

@Gigacasting How sad that you lost half that arb profit to fees.

Posted a version of this question with a larger scope -- indictment anytime before next presidential election https://manifold.markets/dadonk/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-befor There's an existing question on Metuculus btw https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/ , and I'm working on getting the shorter term 2022 question over there, but it's in queue. This will allow an apples to apples comparison between Manifold and Metuculus on this question.

The term 'indictment' means the case is advanced by a grand jury - there are relatively few crimes in the US which require it, so this question rules out all misdemeanors, as well as most of the low level felonies. He's not going to get indicted for his DUIs or simple drug possession.

note that my market covers any form of indictment (not just what is discussed in media currently, any official indictment). this seems broader, but I know very little about the US law. Does someone with law chops want to lay out any possible edge cases between the 2 markets?

It seems like this market differs from the other one in that he could get arrested for disorderly conduct or drunk driving or whatev, right? Whereas an indictment would be a grand jury for the stuff under discussion in the nyt https://manifold.markets/dadonk/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20-90e270df1fb8

I think you have put together a really good trade and I don't think the probability should be sitting at 19% given new revelations by the NYT. First off, your trade plays on people's preconceptions, e.g. it conflates, "any indictment" with the widely common knowledge of the ridiculous laptop conspiracy, secondly, most people including myself on Manifold likely lean at least a bit to the left, so we don't want to see this happen, and thirdly because a lot of people see the upper echelons of government as being untouchable or corrupt, see the likelihood of this happening as low because there's just a base rate corruption assumption. All of that being said, I think at face, if the FBI is actually investigating you, and you're the President's son, they are going to have a good reason for that. The reason doesn't have to be anything that anyone knows about publicly yet. I would put the probability closer to 50% right now.

This could well be the "October Surprise" this year.

The son of a sitting president indicted by federal authorities? Seems pretty improbable, given how much everyone has forgotten about the story. I'll take this action because I think it's especially unlikely to happen before the midterms, so probably even if it happens eventually it'd be in 2023.