"We are currently in the midst of the fall of the United States to right-wing dictatorship" remains a pretty good heuristic.

They're accusing him of a crime. Real money markets up to 15%.

here we go, Trump is looking for replacements for Powell. 6% IS WILD.

Trump came out and said he’s reconsidering firing him. Grab your popcorn things are about to get interesting

@BrendanMooney the fed says it will loosen twice but not yet. This is just a marshmallow test on trump

@Panfilo Want more?

@Joshua Not this month at 25. Need to make sure I stay in Masters since I already took my big swing for April.

@Panfilo Damn

@Joshua Ah well too late now

@Joshua This is now my situation because you're just believing Trump because he said something. Shame.

@Panfilo My fair value was single digits even before he said that!

@Panfilo If I see a large limit order at a point lower than the market, can I fill that directly or do I have to bid the market down to that price?

@WilliamGunn You effectively bid the market down, but why would you ever not want the better deal on all the mana between you and the limit?

@Panfilo I haven't thought through this completely, but I'm thinking if someone has a limit order for, say 10000 NO at 5%, when the market is at 40%, they're saying that when and only when the market thinks it's 5% likely, they want to buy a bunch of NO. Those NO would be sold to them by someone seeking to pick up cheap YES. That person wouldn't want to buy the more expensive YES at 40% -> 5%. What am I confused about/ignorant of?

@WilliamGunn You cannot have a limit order for No at 5% while the market is at 40%. Placing the order would cause you to buy down to 5% as far as you could with your mana against available liquidity.

@Panfilo Oh, I see. Is that because of the automatic market making thing?

@WilliamGunn Nope, not sure what you mean. It happens dynamically within the market you're betting in.

@Panfilo I guess what I'm confused about is that it seems like you want to buy 2500 YES at 15% but the market is at 19%. Did your order bid the market up to 19%?

@WilliamGunn No, like an order on the stock market it waits at that number for someone else to come along and buy the opposite direction.

@Panfilo So when someone here says "Limit orders up at 10% if anyone wants them", they are letting people know that if they place a market order that takes the market price down to that level, there will be plenty of liquidity to fill it?

@WilliamGunn Exactly, assuming the market is currently above 10% and their order is Yes. If the market was below 10% they could place No orders there and challenge people to bet it up.

@Panfilo Thanks very much for your patience and clarity!

You all had about four hours between posts to realize that Orange Man Bad.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-has-for-months-privately-discussed-firing-fed-chair-powell-628d3d79

President Trump has privately discussed firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for months, including in meetings with potential replacement Kevin Warsh

wsj.com

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/business/economy/trump-jerome-powell-fed.html

President Trump lashed out on Thursday at Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, saying, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”