Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out of office by 6/30/24?
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Jul 1
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bought Ṁ100 NO

@Bruce54df Even if the coalition collapsed today the elections wouldn’t be held by the end of June. Certainly it’s not enough time for coalition formation.

@Extremelyaccurate @Bruce I see you hold large positions here. May I ask for your reasoning?

We are a month and a half from the target date, not enough time for elections+coalition setting. Apart for him being incapacitated, aren't we close to technical impossibility?

@Lemming I made my bets many months ago when I thought that the war would be over and that he resign as the public turned against him. I still think he will be gone by year end.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@SemioticRivalry You think a ceasefire is possible with Netanyahu remaining in power?

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 20% order

@riverwalk3 definitely

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 30% order

Any takers?

@Shump That’s a big, confident bet. When do you think he will be out?

@Bruce54df I don't have a specific date. I just think it will be later.

predicts YES

Lead article in Economist: "Netanyahu is botching the war. Time to sack him."

predicts NO

@Bruce54df Better to sack him right after the war. That way, Israel can blame Netanyahu for everything unpopular the IDF did during the war.

predicts YES

"It’s time for the U.S. to tell Israel how to declare victory in Gaza and go home, because right now the Israeli prime minister is utterly useless as a leader: He is — unbelievably — prioritizing his own electoral needs over the interests of Israelis, not to mention the interests of Israel’s best friend, President Biden." Tom Friedman, NYTimes

predicts YES

Latest poll results in Israel: 72% want Netanyahu to resign at end of war.

predicts NO

@Bruce54df You know what's the problem? That this strongly incentivizes Netanyahu to not end this war, even when it needs to end.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@Shump the ceasefire benefits Netanyahu and Hamas, it doesn't help that Netanyahu has consistently been the most dovish Israeli leader on Hamas

predicts YES

@Shump So you think this war will still be going on 6.5 months from now? I don’t think so.

predicts NO

@Bruce54df I think it's absolutely possible. I would maybe assign something like 50%

predicts YES

@Shump @Bruce54df it depends on what you mean by "war". I don't think the Israeli economy can sustain this level of reserves recruited for 6.5 months from now, not to mention armaments and shells, esp. with dwindling US support. But it's definitely possible a more limited conflict will continue in Gaza. Will it be enough to sustain Netanyahu? Will the Israeli public keep believing that "the end of the war" is still in the future, in this case? I don't think so, not for 6.5 months.

predicts YES

Bret Stephens in Nov 12 NYTIMES: 76% of Israelis think Netanyahu should resign.

predicts YES

Tom Friedman in Nov 12 NYTIMES: “Israel has the worst leader in its history”

predicts YES

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Bruce54df 100% that Gantz is polling ahead of Netanyahu and will beat him in a landslide in the next election. The question is whether there will be an election and a new government in Israel by June.

predicts YES

@nathanwei As soon as the war ends (next 4-6 weeks) Bibi will be gone within days after.

predicts NO

@Bruce54df You think he will be gone before the next election? I agree it's quite possible that an election will be called by the end of January which gives enough time for Gantz to form a coalition by the end of June but even then the schedule is a bit tight. It's also possible that Likud tries to make a non-Netanyahu person the PM of Likud.

Anyway, Netanyahu's days are numbered. But things take time, and he will try to stretch it out. I certainly would love to see Gantz as PM ASAP and I think it will probably happen by the end of 2024, but probably not by the middle.

predicts YES

@nathanwei I think we agree that he must go, I just think it will happen sooner.

predicts NO

@Bruce54df I hope you are right.