Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first year in which U.S. tech employment reaches 90% of its 2025 value. The 2025 tech employment figure will be determined based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or other reputable sources. The market will resolve once official data confirms that tech employment has reached or exceeded 90% of the 2025 level in a subsequent year.

Background

As of early 2025, the U.S. tech sector has experienced fluctuations in employment. In January 2025, tech sector companies added a net 6,787 positions, with IT services and software development occupations leading the growth. However, the tech unemployment rate increased to 2.9% in January, compared to the national rate of 4% for the same month. (comptia.org) Additionally, projections indicate that tech jobs in the U.S. are expected to grow at twice the rate of the overall workforce over the next decade, with employment in computer and IT occupations projected to grow much faster than average from 2023 to 2033. (techtarget.com)

Considerations

The tech industry is subject to rapid changes due to technological advancements, economic shifts, and policy decisions. Factors such as the adoption of artificial intelligence, automation, and federal policies affecting employment can influence the trajectory of tech employment. Traders should consider these dynamics when making predictions.